81 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?

35%chance

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 35% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 4, 2025

Closes:

Sep 4, 2025

Resolved:

Sep 10, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2025

Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted

Include Bots:Yes