85 comments
84 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question "Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?"?
43%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 43% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 3, 2025
Closes:Sep 3, 2025
Resolved:Sep 11, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 3, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
46.4% chance
34
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?
12% chance
28
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
77