84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-25 for the Metaculus question "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for predictions.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 16, 2025

Closed:

Sep 16, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Sep 25, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 16, 2025

Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted

Include Bots:Yes