6 forecasters

Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?

34%chance

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Sep 29, 2025

Closes:

Mar 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 29, 2025

Metaculus Learning Academy

Venezuela and US edge toward war footing − but domestic concerns, international risks may hold Washington back

The Conversation•Oct 2, 2025

Top Trump Officials Intensify Push for Regime Change in Venezuela

AntiWar•Oct 1, 2025

Venezuela’s Maduro says he is ready to declare state of emergency if US attacks

CNN•Oct 1, 2025

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