5 comments
72 forecasters
2018 Winograd Schema AI challenge: significant progress?
33%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 33% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 14, 2016
Closes:Feb 10, 2018
Resolved:Jun 13, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 16, 2016
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99.8% chance
415
When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
16 Sep 2026
(09 Sep 2025 - 07 Jan 2029)
16 Sep 2026
(09 Sep 2025 - 07 Jan 2029)
68 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
11 Apr 2026
(02 Dec 2025 - 03 Jun 2027)
11 Apr 2026
(02 Dec 2025 - 03 Jun 2027)
18 forecasters