22 comments
115 forecasters
Before 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?
30%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 8, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 10, 2020
When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?
2060 Year
(2042 - >2075)
2060 Year
(2042 - >2075)
9 forecasters
Will quantum effects be widely accepted as responsible for consciousness before 2075?
5% chance
42
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
77