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95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 15, 2025
Closed:Oct 15, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Oct 23, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 15, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes