Question

Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?

Resolved:Yes

27 comments27

Total Forecasters175

Community Prediction

99.9%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

8.4

Community Peer Score

1.4

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Apr 11, 2020

Closes:

Nov 9, 2056

Resolves:

Nov 1, 2080

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 13, 2020

Politics

Elections

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

57%