70 comments
162 forecasters
Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?
95%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 95% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 7, 2020
Closes:Apr 12, 2020
Resolved:Apr 25, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 7, 2020
Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?
0.1% chance
130
When will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister?
11 Mar 2029
(05 Jul 2027 - Mar 2031)
11 Mar 2029
(05 Jul 2027 - Mar 2031)
18 forecasters
Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?
20% chance
92