31 comments
42 forecasters
How many reviews will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 9, 2020
Closes:Dec 30, 2020
Resolved:Aug 23, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 10, 2020
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80% chance
141
How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?
21.5k members
(15.1k - 31.1k)
21.5k members
(15.1k - 31.1k)
22 forecasters
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5% chance
98