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76
639
forecasters
95
76 comments
639 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
4 more...
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
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Current estimate
24 Feb 2028
24 Feb 2028
(14 Jul 2026 - Nov 2031)
Forecast Timeline
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Forecast Timeline
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Comments (76)
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Key Factors (0)
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Date AI creates a critically acclaimed film?
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30 Apr 2030
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Jan 2033
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AI Competency on Competitive Programming
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27 Oct 2027
13 comments
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AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?
99%
chance
8 comments
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Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?
Current estimate
27 Dec 2028
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
1 comment
54 forecasters
Dates that OpenAI reports an AI reached these Self-improvement risk levels?