239 comments
267 forecasters
When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 11, 2020
Closes:Apr 8, 2021
Resolved:Jan 6, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 13, 2020
When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?
23 Oct 2028
(14 Feb 2026 - Oct 2033)
23 Oct 2028
(14 Feb 2026 - Oct 2033)
48 forecasters
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
3 forecasters
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80% chance
24