36 comments
239 forecasters
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
Current estimate
21.2 months
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Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
329 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
29 May 2027
(02 Feb 2026 - Oct 2030)
29 May 2027
(02 Feb 2026 - Oct 2030)
1.7k forecasters
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.74 years
(-0.906 - 14)
3.74 years
(-0.906 - 14)
65 forecasters