36 comments
240 forecasters
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
Current estimate
22.4 months
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
