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36
243
forecasters
46
36 comments
243 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
3 more...
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
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Current estimate
30.6 months
30.6 months
(6.21 - 206)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
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Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
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Comments (36)
Timeline
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344 forecasters
Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence
Current estimate
34 months
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Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
Current estimate
30 May 2028
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Years Between GWP Growth >25% and AGI
Current estimate
5.05 years
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When AGI arrives after Turing Test
Current estimate
1.22 years
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Gap between AGI creation and reveal
Current estimate
1005 hours
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GDP growth to exceed 30% 15-years post HLAI
50%
chance
29 comments
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Oracle ASI Precedes General ASI
72%
chance
19 comments
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Existential risk from AGI vs AGI timelines
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
20%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
40%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
28%
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31
15%
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31
9.3%