36 comments
240 forecasters
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
Current estimate
22.4 months
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
32.8 months
(9.46 - 135)
32.8 months
(9.46 - 135)
332 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
17 Oct 2027
(19 Apr 2026 - Jul 2031)
17 Oct 2027
(19 Apr 2026 - Jul 2031)
1.7k forecasters
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
65 forecasters