52
1.8k forecasters
Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?
ResolvedNo
Chinese block on H200 nullifies approval
Decreases Likelihood
U.S. approves Nvidia H200 chip exports to China with some conditionsnbcnews.com•Jan 14, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Resistance in WH against chip exports
Decreases Likelihood
Presumption of denial for >H200 chips
Decreases Likelihood
Administration Policies on Advanced AI Chips Codified, with Reverberations Across AI Ecosystem | Insights | Mayer Brownmayerbrown.com•Feb 27, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
China blocks Nvidia H200 AI chips that US government cleared for export – reporttheguardian.com•Jan 17, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Formal H200 export regulation limits scope
Decreases Likelihood
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Chinese Government Has Not Approved H200 AI Chip ImportsBreitbart•Feb 2, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Nvidia CEO Huang says bringing Blackwell AI chip to China 'is a real possibility'cnbc.com•Aug 27, 2025
Increases Likelihood
Nvidia prepares shipment of 82,000 AI GPUs to China as chip war lines blur — H200 shipments with 25% tax to begin as US loosens restrictionstomshardware.com•Dec 23, 2025
Decreases Likelihood
Nvidia 'must live with' guardrails on AI sales to China: Lutnick (NVDA:NASDAQ)seekingalpha.com•Feb 10, 2026
Decreases Likelihood