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50
1.4k forecasters
10
50 comments
1.4k forecasters
Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026
condition

US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?

Resolved:Yes
1.4k forecasters
if yes
if no

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?

6968
Resolved:6632.19

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on March 13, 2026?

7001
Resolved:Annulled
if Yes37.5%
if No40.1%
Positioning / Concentration Risk
Decreases
Financial Conditions vs Earnings Lag
Decreases
Historic Increase in Jobs Earlier in the year
Increases
Stock Market Outlook: 3 Reasons the AI Craze Will Fade in 2026Business Insider • Jan 14, 2026Business Insider•Jan 14, 2026
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Increases

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