Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?

Question

Over the last 9 influenza seasons, the CDC estimates that the seasonal death toll from influenza outbreaks has ranged from between 11,000 and 95,000. So far 35,875 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the US in 2020.

How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?

Resolution will be to the number of deaths reported on the COVID Tracker spreadsheet (US Daily 4PM ET tab) on January 10th at 16:00 ET for all of 2020.

Note: The 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile from the community prediction will be used for the COVID-19 Expert Survey results.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.