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Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0

by dan • {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}} • Edited on {{qctrl.question.edited_time | dateStr}} • Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics • {{"estimatedReadingTime" | translate:({minutes: qctrl.question.estimateReadingTime()})}}

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Using data from the COVID tracker daily reports from the past five weeks (starting with the week ending Saturday March 28, through the week ending Saturday April 25), we have seen 1704, 6378, 12044, 13716, and 13841 new deaths reported each week in the US. When do you expect the weekly new reported deaths (as calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday) to fall below 5,000?

When do you expect the weekly new reported deaths (as calculated using new reported deaths Sunday through Saturday) to first fall below 5,000?

Assign probabilities to the following dates, according to when you expect to see the weekly new reported deaths (as calculated using new reported deaths from Sunday through Saturday) first fall below 5,000.

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