7
47 forecasters
Will there be a nationwide anti-government uprising in Russia between September 20 and November 1, 2026?
ResolvedNo
State capacity for rapid repression
Decreases Likelihood
Economic deterioration and public frustration
Increases Likelihood
Security force cohesion and loyalty
Decreases Likelihood
Regional spread beyond Moscow and St. Petersburg
Increases Likelihood
Scale of post-election protests
Increases Likelihood