33
135 forecasters
What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?
Defendant(s) liable
Defendants not liable
None before September
Trial is already underway, making pre-September resolution likely.
Decreases Likelihood for None before September
Dropped claims and control-seeking narrative weaken Musk's case.
Increases Likelihood for Defendants not liable
Low bar for liable resolution
Increases Likelihood for Defendant(s) liable
Low bar for some civil liability keeps Musk's claim alive
Increases Likelihood for Defendant(s) liable
Judge's timeline expectation
Decreases Likelihood for None before September
Musk's opportunistic behavior
Decreases Likelihood for Defendant(s) liable
Statute of limitations
Decreases Likelihood for Defendant(s) liable