15
137 forecasters
Will the UK National Threat Level reduce from SEVERE before September 2026?
6.5%chance
2.5% this week
Top Key Factors
Record high terrorism custody numbers
Decreases Likelihood
Largest ever counter terrorism training exercise held in central Londonnews.met.police.uk•Jun 7, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Summer events increase likelihood of maintaining level
Decreases Likelihood
Institutional caution favors maintaining high level
Decreases Likelihood
Recent raise limits chance for quick reduction
Decreases Likelihood
Hybrid raise may ease reduction faster
Increases Likelihood
Threat-level reductions usually require a sustained quiet period.
Decreases Likelihood
Record high terrorism custody numbers
Decreases Likelihood
Largest ever counter terrorism training exercise held in central Londonnews.met.police.uk•Jun 7, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Recent raise limits chance for quick reduction
Decreases Likelihood
Institutional caution favors maintaining high level
Decreases Likelihood
Summer events increase likelihood of maintaining level
Decreases Likelihood
Hybrid raise may ease reduction faster
Increases Likelihood
UK National Threat Level changes since 2019
4in10
Threat-level reductions usually require a sustained quiet period.
Decreases Likelihood