43
149 forecasters
Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina officially be in place before September 2, 2026?
ResolvedNo
All camps agree on need for appointment
Increases Likelihood
Split in PIC camps increases uncertainty
Decreases Likelihood
Ambassador Lagumdžija confirms smooth transition
Increases Likelihood
Scheduled PIC meeting accelerates decision
Increases Likelihood
Historical transition precedents support swift process
Increases Likelihood
US and Italian backing for Landi increases likelihood
Increases Likelihood
Geopolitical frictions delay decision
Decreases Likelihood
Lack of consensus for successor slows process
Decreases Likelihood