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61
239
forecasters
15
61 comments
239 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
3 more...
Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
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58%
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4 comments
24 forecasters
Chalmers Says AI Conscious By 2030?
29%
chance
3 comments
31 forecasters
Rob Long Says AI Conscious By 2030?
57%
chance
5 comments
78 forecasters
Who will develop the first AGI?
Alphabet
34.1%
Anthropic
26.4%
OpenAI
21.1%
Other
10.8%
2 others
3 comments
95 forecasters
Government project develops first AGI
12%
chance
3 comments
127 forecasters
Corporation develops first AGI
89%
chance
2 comments
7 forecasters
When will moral patienthood of AI systems be acknowledged?
Current estimate
>01 Jan 2031
3 comments
95 forecasters
University group develops first AGI
2%
chance
19 comments
65 forecasters
Gap between AGI creation and reveal
Current estimate
1005 hours