22
101 forecasters
Will the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy to the initial two pilot zones in southern Lebanon before September 2026?
ResolvedYes
LAF deployed to Zawtar after Israeli withdrawal, confirmed by Reuters and the LAF.
Increases Likelihood
Zawtar Al-Gharbiya inside buffer zone covered
Increases Likelihood
Pilot Zones: Netanyahu Rejects Simultaneous Israeli Withdrawal, Lebanese Army Deploymentenglish.aawsat.com•Jul 13, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Three of four parties benefit from visible deployment.
Increases Likelihood
Third-party verifier for step two has not been named.
Decreases Likelihood
Reporting is split on whether the three villages are one pilot zone or both.
Decreases Likelihood
Doubt in Lebanese good faith
Decreases Likelihood
Doubt in Israeli good faith
Decreases Likelihood