FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?

    Created by Matthew_Barnett on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Matthew_Barnett on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.

    The chosen metrics are,

    • Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).

    • Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).

    • The Nature Index. If this index is discontinued, then International Science Ranking takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.

    This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.

    Categories:
    Geopolitics

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.