17 comments
85 forecasters
When will the first 49+ qubit universal quantum computer be constructed?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 16, 2017
Closes:Jun 1, 2018
Resolved:May 31, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 18, 2017
How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?
2.69M qubits
(140k - 18.5M)
2.69M qubits
(140k - 18.5M)
6 forecasters
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Sep 2035
(May 2031 - Jun 2045)
Sep 2035
(May 2031 - Jun 2045)
19 forecasters
Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?
62% chance
97