13 comments
56 forecasters
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
Current estimate
1300 years
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Jun 4, 2020
Closes:Jan 21, 5025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 21, 5025
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 6, 2020
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
22% chance
44
Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?
75% chance
28
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
10% chance
43