Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

160 forecasters

12

160 forecasters

Natural Sciences

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

7%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

0 comments31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

7 comments61 forecasters

US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation

35 comments193 forecasters

No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035

1 comment40 forecasters

Nuclear Weapon Test Over 30 MT by 2030

69 comments530 forecasters

At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050

13 comments63 forecasters

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

1 comment21 forecasters

First detonation accidental/unauthorized?

0 comments135 forecasters

Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran Before 2027?