144 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

6%chance

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 2, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 4, 2020

Natural Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Can we actually stop a nuclear missile? 'A House of Dynamite' has a shocking answer

USA Today•Oct 24, 2025

Putin oversees ‘planned’ readiness test of Russia’s nuclear forces

New York Post•Oct 23, 2025

Turning Back From the Brink of Nuclear War

AntiWar•Oct 23, 2025

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