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Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?

Question

The International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) is a mathematics competition for pre-university students. It consists of six questions, each scored out of seven. The highest possible score is therefore 42. The problems are extremely difficult, and mean scores are typically less than 15 marks. It is not uncommon for no students to score full marks, or for only one student to do so, though in 1987 twenty-two perfect scores were achieved, meaning that a perfect score was required for a gold medal. In 2020, the 61st IMO is scheduled to be held from July 8 to July 18 in St Petersburg, Russia.

This question asks: Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?

For a positive resolution, at the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg, more than one entrant must achieve a score of 42. Resolution will be via credible media reports.

  • If the 2020 IMO is postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic, this question will resolve after the postponed competition is held.

  • If the competition format is changed because of the pandemic (for example, by going online) but the question format is not changed, i.e. 6 questions worth 7 marks each are asked, the question resolves as above.

  • If the 2020 IMO is cancelled, or if the format of the questions is changed, resolution will be ambiguous.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

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