Politifact is an independent fact-checking organisation which focuses primarily, but not entirely, on US politics. Claims are assigned a rating on the “Truth-o-meter” ranging from “True” to “Pants on Fire”. For a statement to qualify as “Pants on Fire”, it should both not be accurate and make what politifact considers to be “a ridiculous claim”.

This question asks whether, in the month of July, the number of claims made by Donald Trump and rated by politifact as “Pants on Fire” will be equal to, or greater than, five plus the number of claims made by Joe Biden and rated by politifact as “Pants on fire” over the same period.

Question resolves positive if, on the date of resolution, $T \geq B + 5$, where $T$ is the number of “Pants on Fire” ratings given by politifact to Donald Trump for claims he made in July, and $B$ is the number of “Pants on Fire” ratings given to Biden for claims he made in July.

If politifact ceases to operate or changes the labelling on it’s “truth-o-meter”, this question resolves ambiguous, otherwise this question resolves negative.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

ETA (2020-06-05) in the case that the question does not resolve positively by July 31, resolution can be delayed by two weeks to see how statements made in late July will be rated.