17 comments
88 forecasters
Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?
67%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 67% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 4, 2020
Closes:Sep 21, 2020
Resolved:Nov 20, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will the first woman win the World Chess Championships?
2095
(Nov 2063 - >2119)
2095
(Nov 2063 - >2119)
48 forecasters
Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?
19% chance
69
Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?
34% chance
69