Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?

Question

The Booker Prize is an annual award for the best original novel written in the English Language and published in the United Kingdom. A longlist of 13 potential winners is published in July, while a shortlist of 6 is published in September.

This question asks: Will the winner of the 2020 Booker Prize be female?

This question is timed to close one week after the announcement of the shortlist. For the purposes of resolution, the gender of the author will be considered to be their gender identity at the time they are announced as the winner of the prize. Please note that this question refers to The Booker Prize and not The International Booker Prize

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.