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Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?

Question

JK Rowling is currently releasing her new book, “The Ickabog”, in daily installments on her website. She plans to release it as a physical book in November. The Harry Potter books, also by Rowling, are one of the best-selling fiction series of all time. Harry Potter and The Cursed Child, the most recent installment, sold more than 2m copies in its first two days of publication, and topped bestseller lists of both Amazon and Barnes & Noble. As of the time of this question’s writing, more than half of Amazon’s top 10 most read books by week are from the Harry Potter series.

This question asks: Will “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?

Positive resolution occurs if, at any point in the week following The Ickabog’s official launch in the UK, it is ranked first on amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list for books. If the physical release of The Ickabog is cancelled, or delayed past the end of 2020, resolution will be ambiguous.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

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