47 comments
105 forecasters
Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?
76%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 76% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 4, 2020
Closes:Nov 1, 2020
Resolved:Nov 19, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2020
Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication?
20% chance
31
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
57% chance
269
When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?
10 Oct 2029
(22 Feb 2027 - Mar 2035)
10 Oct 2029
(22 Feb 2027 - Mar 2035)
99 forecasters