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# Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?

### Question

The Bechdel test, made famous by the cartoonist Alison Bechdel in her comic strip “Dykes to Watch Out For”, but credited by her to her friend Liz Wallace, is a three-part test of women’s representation in fiction. To “pass” the test, a film must:

• Contain two named female characters.

• Who have a conversation with each other.

• Which is not about a man.

This question asks: Of the ten highest grossing films of 2020, will more than half satisfy all three of the criteria above?

• The ten highest grossing films will be determined by credible media reports, while whether the films pass the bechdel test will be determined by bechdeltest.com.

• As passing the test can in some cases be ambiguous, if there is sufficient disagreement in the comments on bechdeltest.com that the resolution might change, a panel of at least two metaculus admins, who have not predicted on the question, will be asked to judge and decide on a resolution. If no metaculus admins are able to judge, or if they do not agree, resolution will be ambiguous. 'Sufficient disagreement' is defined as follows:

Let the number of Top-10 films with disagreement about resolution in the comments be $N$, and the number of Top-10 films passing the test according to the bechdeltest.com be $P$. Disagreement is sufficient if $|P-5| \leq N$

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

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