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Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?


The Bechdel test, made famous by the cartoonist Alison Bechdel in her comic strip “Dykes to Watch Out For”, but credited by her to her friend Liz Wallace, is a three-part test of women’s representation in fiction. To “pass” the test, a film must:

  • Contain two named female characters.

  • Who have a conversation with each other.

  • Which is not about a man.

This question asks: Of the ten highest grossing films of 2020, will more than half satisfy all three of the criteria above?

  • The ten highest grossing films will be determined by credible media reports, while whether the films pass the bechdel test will be determined by

  • As passing the test can in some cases be ambiguous, if there is sufficient disagreement in the comments on that the resolution might change, a panel of at least two metaculus admins, who have not predicted on the question, will be asked to judge and decide on a resolution. If no metaculus admins are able to judge, or if they do not agree, resolution will be ambiguous. 'Sufficient disagreement' is defined as follows:

Let the number of Top-10 films with disagreement about resolution in the comments be , and the number of Top-10 films passing the test according to the be . Disagreement is sufficient if

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

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