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60
205
forecasters
42
60 comments
205 forecasters
Economy & Business
2 more...
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
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Current estimate
21 Sep 2028
21 Sep 2028
(31 Aug 2027 - 21 Mar 2030)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (60)
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Key Factors (0)
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15%
chance
10 comments
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SpaceX lands stuff on Mars by 2035?
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48%
At least one person
4%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
1.6%
Elon Musk
0.1%
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0.1%
chance
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Starship orbital refueling in 2026?
35%
chance
1 comment
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SpaceX Starship Integrated Launches 2026?
Current estimate
7.67 Launches
21 comments
126 forecasters
Date 10,000th Person Reaches Space
Current estimate
Mar 2049