135 comments
370 forecasters
If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?
75%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 75% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2020
Closes:Nov 3, 2020
Resolved:Jan 8, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 13, 2020
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
7 forecasters
Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?
5 forecasters
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
24% chance
50