135 comments
370 forecasters
If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?
75%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 75% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2020
Closes:Nov 3, 2020
Resolved:Jan 8, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 13, 2020
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
48 forecasters
Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?
46 forecasters
Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?
25% chance
54