Question

What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters130

Community Prediction

4.84 %/yr

(0.969 %/yr - 8.85 %/yr)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	<-50	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>100
community	0.1%	0.9688	4.839	8.851	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<-50	0.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.9688	—
median	4.839	—
upper 75%	8.851	—
Upper bound
>100	0.1%	—

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

mdickens

Opened:

Jun 12, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2033

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 14, 2020

Economy & Business

2016-2025 Leaderboard

What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?

5.24

What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?

7.01

What will be the S&P 500 dividend yield in end-of-year 2031?

1.29