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What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?

Question

The 2018 House and Senate elections in the United States resulted in the US Congress becoming more diverse than at any previous point in its history. Despite this increase, it is still significantly less diverse than the general US population, in terms of both race and gender. This question is one of two which asks users to predict whether, and to what extent, the recent increase in diversity will continue in 2020.

Specifically, the question asks: What fraction of the elected seats in the US Congress following the November 3 election, will be held by people of color?

The question resolves following the final release of election results (including any recounts) as the total number of people elected to either the House of Representatives or the Senate, who identify as African-American, Asian-American*, Hispanic-American, or Native American, or as any ethnic mix which includes one of these groups, divided by 535.

*Categories and naming conventions have been taken from senate.gov. Pacific Islanders appear to have historically been listed as “Asian” in material surrounding diversity in the US Senate and House of Representatives, and this question is written assuming no change to this approach. In the case of someone not fitting into one of the above categories but publicly identifying as a person of color, or in the case of the categories described above changing, admins can and should be expected to make a sensible ruling about who to include.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

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