Question

Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?

Resolved:No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction

(3% - 11%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

82.1

Community Peer Score

5.1

Authors:

beala

Opened:

Jun 23, 2020

Closes:

Nov 1, 2020

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 25, 2020

Geopolitics

2020 Leaderboard

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

13%

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

14%

Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

99.4%