Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?

Bitcoin (BTC), the first significant blockchain-based "cryptocurrency" has grown from near zero at its advent in 2013 to a market capitalization of about $38B USB as of June 2017 question launch. (see current market cap and time series here.) While Bitcoin is still the largest, hundreds of other blockchain-based currencies have been launched, and some are catching up.

Ethereum (ETH) started trading in 2015, and has reached almost half the market cap of Bitcoin as of June 2017; see current market cap and time series here. Ripple, a third major currency, stands at about half of Ethereum.

Will Ethereum surpass Bitcoin's total market capitalization by 2020?

Resolution will be based on the descendant blockchains of Bitcoin and Ethereum (including Ethereum classic) with the largest market cap at the time. Resolution is positive if at any point prior to Jan 1, 2020, Ethereum's total market capitalization surpasses that of Bitcoin, as reported on, for two consecutive days. (If is discontinued, then resolution will be based on substantially equivalent data or sources.)

For this question, a "descendant blockchain" is: (a) a continuation of a blockchain (e.g., both ethereum and ethereum classic are descendant blockchains of the pre-DAO blockchain), or (b) a snapshot-based fork where a new blockchain is initiated with balances equal to those from a snapshot of the parent blockchain (e.g., the upcoming zencash will be a descendent of zclassic because its genesis block will begin with balances equal to those from a snapshot of zclassic's blockchain, but zclassic is not a descendent of zcash because its genesis block had empty balances). In addition, the date of the snapshot must be after the creation of this question (2017-06-02).

(Edited 06/06/17 to require two consecutive days of resolution satisfaction, and to specify descendent blockchain provisions.)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.