Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?

Question

Bitcoin (BTC), the first significant blockchain-based "cryptocurrency" has grown from near zero at its advent in 2013 to a market capitalization of about $38B USB as of June 2017 question launch. (see current market cap and time series here.) While Bitcoin is still the largest, hundreds of other blockchain-based currencies have been launched, and some are catching up.

Ethereum (ETH) started trading in 2015, and has reached almost half the market cap of Bitcoin as of June 2017; see current market cap and time series here. Ripple, a third major currency, stands at about half of Ethereum.

Will Ethereum surpass Bitcoin's total market capitalization by 2020?

Resolution will be based on the descendant blockchains of Bitcoin and Ethereum (including Ethereum classic) with the largest market cap at the time. Resolution is positive if at any point prior to Jan 1, 2020, Ethereum's total market capitalization surpasses that of Bitcoin, as reported on coinmarketcap.com, for two consecutive days. (If coinmarketcap.com is discontinued, then resolution will be based on substantially equivalent data or sources.)

For this question, a "descendant blockchain" is: (a) a continuation of a blockchain (e.g., both ethereum and ethereum classic are descendant blockchains of the pre-DAO blockchain), or (b) a snapshot-based fork where a new blockchain is initiated with balances equal to those from a snapshot of the parent blockchain (e.g., the upcoming zencash will be a descendent of zclassic because its genesis block will begin with balances equal to those from a snapshot of zclassic's blockchain, but zclassic is not a descendent of zcash because its genesis block had empty balances). In addition, the date of the snapshot must be after the creation of this question (2017-06-02).

(Edited 06/06/17 to require two consecutive days of resolution satisfaction, and to specify descendent blockchain provisions.)

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.