FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    Second US civil war before July 2021?

    Created by jem-mosig on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by jem-mosig on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    Context

    Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this list of civil wars for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current COVID-19 pandemic, social protests, effects of social media platform manipulation, and the upcoming presidential election all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.

    This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?

    Resolution Criteria

    This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.

    Categories:
    Politics – US

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.