Question

Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?

Resolved:Yes

16 comments16

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction

99%

(95% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-18.7

Community Peer Score

6.3

Authors:

daavwangg

Opened:

Jul 9, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 9, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Authors:

daavwangg

Opened:

Jul 9, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 9, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%