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AGI Preceeds LEV


Longevity escape velocity is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life

longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.

Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?

An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.

For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects.

This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in this question).

Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.

If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously.

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