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What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?


In the 2016 United States presidential election, the Republican party candidate, Donald Trump, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. In the 2020 election, Donald Trump is again the presumptive Republican nominee, running against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden (as well as any third-party candidates). Most US presidents get a second term if they want one - usually with a popular majority.

This question asks: What will be the difference between the popular vote of the Republican candidate and the other candidate with the highest vote count?

For purposes of this question, this will be the percent won by the Republican candidate minus the percent won by the highest polling non-Republican candidate. That is, if the Republican candidate wins the popular vote (but not necessarily the election), this will have a positive value, and otherwise it will have a negative value (or 0).

For example:

Note that the popular vote does not directly determine the outcome of a US election. The question will be judged by numbers published in the New York Times as of 2020/12/01. If the New York Times does not publish the popular vote totals by that time, this question will resolve as ambiguous.

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